Chapter IV: A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Raytheon Company Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. |
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| A non-typical Seasonal Pattern is shown by Raytheon Company. For the average common stock, low prices are most likely previous to the month of November. The percentage spread between the high and low months is 7.57 percent, when averaged over the last 28 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| Investors in Raytheon Company should consider staying in cash during October. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Investors shrewd enough to invest in Raytheon Company during December have seen an average maximum gain of 11.67 percent at some time in the following 60 trading days. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 7.57 percent from January to the next August. This is 12.98 percent when converted to an annual return. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 18.17 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with RTN roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Texas Instruments Incorporated and Convergys Corporation. From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Amgen, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Coach, Inc., Fluor Corporation (NEW), and Automatic Data Processing. |