Chapter IV: A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Prudential Financial, Inc. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. |
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| Prudential Financial, Inc. does not fit the typical Seasonal pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. Averaged over the last 10 years, PRU exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 10.23 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| Investors in Prudential Financial, Inc. should consider staying in cash during October. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 9.77 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of December. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Investors shrewd enough to invest in Prudential Financial, Inc. during March have seen an average maximum gain of 28.92 percent at some time in the following 60 trading days. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 10.23 percent from March to the next September. This is 20.46 percent when converted to an annual return. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 20.5 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with PRU roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| In the news, Friday, February 18, 2011: An unfavorable condition has developed with Aetna Inc., ticker symbol AET. Also, there are breaking events concerning Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) and First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (FNFG) |