Chapter IV: The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. |
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| American Airlines does not fit the typical Seasonal pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. A 9.46 percent spread has rewarded the seasonal investor for nearly 30 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| Investors in American Airlines should consider staying in cash during August. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. American Airlines speculators who have taken positions starting in February gain 12.87 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. Over the span of 11 months from January to December a gain of 9.46 percent has occurred historically. This is an annual rate of 10.3 percent. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 113.5 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with PEP roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Texas Instruments Incorporated and Convergys Corporation. From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Amgen, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Coach, Inc., Fluor Corporation (NEW), and Automatic Data Processing. |