Chapter IV: The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
|
| ||
| Nike Footwear does not fit the typical Seasonal pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. NKEshows a strong seasonal bias of 12.33 percent, when averaged over the last 23 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| Investors in Nike Footwear should consider staying in cash during August. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. By this measure, the month of March appears favorable, offering a quick return averaging 6.85 percent. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Nike Footwear speculators who have taken positions starting in January gain 17.55 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
|
This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. Over the span of 11 months from January to December a gain of 12.33 percent has occurred historically. This is an annual rate of 13.5 percent. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 148.0 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with NKE roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. and Illinois Tool Works Inc.. From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at MicroSoft, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., and Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak. |