Chapter IV: A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Intel Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
|
| ||
| Like many issues, American Airlines experiences low prices during the Fall months. Averaged over the last 24 years, INTC exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 10.2 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| INTC speculators might well avoid the month of September. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 6.76 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of January. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. American Airlines speculators who have taken positions starting in December gain 23.62 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
|
This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. Over the span of 10 months from October to August a gain of 10.2 percent has occurred historically. This is an annual rate of 12.2 percent. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 61.20 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with INTC roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |