Chapter IV: The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. |
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| Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that Fluor Corporation (NEW) does not fit the most common pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. FLRshows a strong seasonal bias of 22.69 percent, when averaged over the last 10 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| FLR speculators might well avoid the month of September. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 7.76 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of November. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Fluor Corporation (NEW) speculators who have taken positions starting in March gain 26.58 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 22.69 percent from January to the next June. This is 54.46 percent when converted to an annual return. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 38.90 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with FLR roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| In the news, Monday, February 08, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Also, there are breaking events concerning ACM Income Fund (ACG) and United Technologies (UTX) |