FAST - The Best Time to Buy or Sell Fastenal Company
Chapter IV: The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information.
Timing Seasonal Trends in FAST Common Stock.
Fastenal Company does not fit the typical Seasonal pattern. Usually, the lowest prices occur in the Fall Months. Averaged over the last 21 years, FAST exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 15.43 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price.
FAST speculators might well avoid the month of September. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 9.44 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of April. |
Best Months For Short Term Investing in Fastenal Company Common Stock.
The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here.
Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Fastenal Company speculators who have taken positions starting in March gain 22.55 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 15.43 percent from January to the next December. This is 16.83 percent when converted to an annual return. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 185.16 percent. |
Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct.
For Members: More Market Timing Analysis of Fastenal Company
Companies in the News:
|In the news, Friday, February 18, 2011: An unfavorable condition has developed with Aetna Inc., ticker symbol AET. Also, there are breaking events concerning Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) and First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (FNFG)|
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