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| Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that American Airlines does not fit the most common pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. ECLshows a strong seasonal bias of 12.26 percent, when averaged over the last 22 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| Investors in American Airlines should consider staying in cash during February. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Investors shrewd enough to invest in American Airlines during February have seen an average maximum gain of 11.49 percent at some time in the following 60 trading days. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 12.26 percent from February to the next December. This is 14.71 percent when converted to an annual return. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 73.56 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with ECL roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, September 03, 2010: We have news on The Allstate Corporation, ticker symbol ALL. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Vodafone Group Plc and Marshall & Ilsley Corporation. From the News Archive: (9/3/2010 ) Bad news came from AFLAC Incorporated, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc., and King Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. |