| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
|
| ||
| A non-typical Seasonal Pattern is shown by Darden Restaurants. For the average common stock, low prices are most likely previous to the month of November. Averaged over the last 15 years, DRI exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 12.05 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| Investors in Darden Restaurants should consider staying in cash during July. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. By this measure, the month of March appears favorable, offering a quick return averaging 7.43 percent. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Investors shrewd enough to invest in Darden Restaurants during February have seen an average maximum gain of 19.8 percent at some time in the following 60 trading days. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
|
This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. Over the span of 3 months from January to April a gain of 12.05 percent has occurred historically. This is an annual rate of 48.2 percent. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 16.1 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with DRI roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Wednesday, March 17, 2010: We have news on General Electric, ticker symbol GE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Texas Instruments Incorporated. Meanwhile, bad news came from CitiGroup, ConAgra Foods, Inc., and Convergys Corporation. |