Chapter IV: A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Dell Inc. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. |
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| Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that Dell Inc. does not fit the most common pattern. Usually, the lowest prices occur in the Fall Months. Averaged over the last 22 years, DELL exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 10.81 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| DELL speculators might well avoid the month of June. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. By this measure, the month of March appears favorable, offering a quick return averaging 7.3 percent. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Dell Inc. speculators who have taken positions starting in March gain 28.21 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. Over the span of 5 months from February to July a gain of 10.81 percent has occurred historically. This is an annual rate of 25.9 percent. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 18.5 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with DELL roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, February 18, 2011: We have news on Fiserv, Inc., ticker symbol FISV. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Zimmer Holdings, Inc. and D.R. Horton, Inc.. From the News Archive: (2/18/2011 ) Favorable events happened at Robert Half International Inc. and Southwestern Energy Company. Meanwhile, bad news came from McCormick & Company, Incorporated and Reynolds American, Inc.. |