CTRP - The Best Time to Buy or Sell Ctrip.com International, Ltd.
Timing Seasonal Trends in CTRP Common Stock.
Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that Ctrip.com International, Ltd. does not fit the most common pattern. For the average common stock, low prices are most likely previous to the month of November. CTRPshows a strong seasonal bias of 36.06 percent, when averaged over the last 8 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price.
CTRP speculators might well avoid the month of January. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. By this measure, the month of April appears favorable, offering a quick return averaging 7.52 percent. |
Best Months For Short Term Investing in Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Common Stock.
The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here.
Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Ctrip.com International, Ltd. speculators who have taken positions starting in March gain 31.97 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. Over the span of 10 months from February to December a gain of 36.06 percent has occurred historically. This is an annual rate of 43.3 percent. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 216.4 percent. |
Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct.
For Members: More Market Timing Analysis of Ctrip.com International, Ltd.
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