| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
|
| ||
| Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that Cisco Systems does not fit the most common pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. Averaged over the last 20 years, CSCO exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 10.47 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| Investors in Cisco Systems should consider staying in cash during February. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. By this measure, the month of November appears favorable, offering a quick return averaging 9.2 percent. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Cisco Systems speculators who have taken positions starting in October gain 29.48 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
|
This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 10.47 percent from April to the next December. This is 15.71 percent when converted to an annual return. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 31.41 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with CSCO roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. and Illinois Tool Works Inc.. From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at MicroSoft, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., and Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak. |