Chapter IV: A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Allegheny Energy, Inc. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
|
| ||
| Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that Allegheny Energy, Inc. does not fit the most common pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. The percentage spread between the high and low months is 5.28 percent, when averaged over the last 27 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| Investors in Allegheny Energy, Inc. should consider staying in cash during February. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Investors shrewd enough to invest in Allegheny Energy, Inc. during November have seen an average maximum gain of 12.38 percent at some time in the following 60 trading days. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
|
This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 5.28 percent from March to the next May. This is 31.68 percent when converted to an annual return. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 6.34 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with AYE roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, February 18, 2011: We have news on Fiserv, Inc., ticker symbol FISV. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Zimmer Holdings, Inc. and McCormick & Company, Incorporated. From the News Archive: (2/18/2011 ) Bad news came from Reynolds American, Inc., Dollar Tree, Inc., Zimmer Holdings, Inc., and NVIDIA Corp. |