Chapter IV: A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Apache Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. |
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| Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that Apache does not fit the most common pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. APAshows a strong seasonal bias of 12.5 percent, when averaged over the last 29 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| Investors in Apache should consider staying in cash during November. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 5.85 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of March. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Apache speculators who have taken positions starting in March gain 19.47 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 12.5 percent from January to the next December. This is 13.64 percent when converted to an annual return. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 150.0 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with APA roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| In the news, Friday, February 18, 2011: An unfavorable condition has developed with Aetna Inc., ticker symbol AET. Also, there are breaking events concerning Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) and First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (FNFG) |