Chapter IV: The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. |
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| American Airlines does not fit the typical Seasonal pattern. The more usual seasonal pattern has the low prices during the pre-winter months. AMZNshows a strong seasonal bias of 31.38 percent, when averaged over the last 13 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| AMZN speculators might well avoid the month of February. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 12.79 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of April. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Investors shrewd enough to invest in American Airlines during October have seen an average maximum gain of 46.06 percent at some time in the following 60 trading days. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 31.38 percent from February to the next December. This is 37.66 percent when converted to an annual return. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 188.3 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with AMZN roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on Nicor Inc., ticker symbol GAS. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning American International Group, Inc. and Wells Fargo & Company. From the News Archive: (2/5/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Regions Financial Corporation, Marathon Oil Corporation, and Pactiv Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Genzyme Corporation. |