Chapter IV: A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Alcatel Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. |
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| Alcatel is typical in having low prices in the months of Autumn. Averaged over the last 13 years, ALA exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 13.79 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| Investors in Alcatel should consider staying in cash during September. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 15.11 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of October. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Investors shrewd enough to invest in Alcatel during October have seen an average maximum gain of 24.82 percent at some time in the following 60 trading days. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 13.79 percent from October to the next July. This is 18.39 percent when converted to an annual return. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 55.16 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with ALA roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, February 05, 2010: We have news on Genzyme Corporation, ticker symbol GENZ. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Archer-Daniels-Midland and Pactiv Corporation. From the News Archive: (2/5/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Wells Fargo & Company, Marathon Oil Corporation, Dell Inc., and Principal Financial Group, Inc.. |